Stats :: Series 1B :: Event Horizon 2012 | Rounds 1 and 2

In post A of this series, we looked at a breakdown of the types and numbers of those types of armies at the Event Horizon 2012 (Warhammer 40k 5th Edition) tournament. Post B continues this series by looking at the results of the games from Rounds 1 and 2. Let’s crack on.

When I created this post, I realised it’s handy to have all the graphs and table available. I suggest right clicking on these links and select “Open in new Window” so you have them ready in another window as you read this post:

Army Breakdown Table

(Right click on the chart images below to open them in another window)

Results from Round 1 by Army:

Event Horizon 2012 Round 1

Event Horizon 2012 Round 1 results by Army

Firstly, let’s look at the winners in the first round. No surprise with Space Wolves, Necrons and Blood Angels up there early, however Dark Eldar seem to have held their own with 3/5 up there. Next set are the Imperial Guard and Grey Knights, but wait! there were actually 5 Grey Knight armies, but only 2 won the first turn. If you haven’t heard it before, this is the point where I inform you that many seasoned players and grounded net-dwellers (those who play alot and also post comments about their experience) have raised the topic that “it’s not just the army, its the player’s ability that determines the outcome of the battle”. The key to deciphering part of this conundrum is that the first round was: 1. Randomly arranged and this caused; 2. I saw a few ‘fratricidal’ match ups (for instance Grey Knights vs Grey Knights, Dark Eldar vs Dark Eldar and so on). It’s also worth noting that the armies that came up with a 100% win record are: Necrons (3/3), Space Marines (2/2), Imperial Guard (2/2) and Daemons (1/1). With nothing further to add, on to Round 2.

Results from Round 2 by Army:

Event Horizon 2012 Results after 2 Rounds

Event Horizon 2012 Results after 2 Rounds

After 2 rounds, we can start to see some trends emerging. Given also that Denis was able to start ranking players and match them appropriately after Round 1 results, these stats have evolved and define the army breakdown results further into meaningful statistics. That’s enough waffle, what does this mean?

Starting at the bottom, the only armies to have lost the first 2 rounds are Chaos Space Marines and Orks. While not surprising for the Orks as there was only 1 army present (and ahem… someone turned up late and forfeited the first round…ahem :P), the interesting item here is that the CSMs didn’t put a score on the board between 3 armies. Other notables are 1 of 2 Dark Angels armies achieving a win, with the same stat for the Eldar. For the other results, its important to look at the results in conjunction with Round 1 results, so we’ll move on to a comparison chart, Percentage Wins after 2 rounds”, again by army.

% Wins after 2 rounds by Army:

Event Horizon 2012 % Wins after 2

Event Horizon 2012 % Wins after 2 rounds by Army

For me, this is the most simple yet powerful way of looking at the results of the round when comparing them over all of the rounds thus far. This chart does just that. How does it work? The calculation is simple: How many wins for a given Army DIVIDED BY How many armies present DIVIDED BY How many rounds played. For example, for Blood Angels this round it is: Wins: 7 DIVIDED BY 4 Armies present DIVIDED BY 2 rounds played = 7/4/3 = 87.5% (or 88% rounded up :)).

I’ll explain that given the above, on a level playing field, any army should find it difficult to get a high percentage if there are many armies present. This is because the more armies are present, the easier it is for some of those armies to lose more often (because you could get the same army playing each other). Feel free to contact me if this is confusing, otherwise I’ll move on.

It’s easiest to start from the bottom: Orks and Chaos Space Marines didn’t win any of their games up to end of round 2, therefore they have 0% winage (this word is a combination of win and percentage). Dark Angels only won 1 of the 4 games over 2 rounds, so they have a 25% winage. Dark Angels seem to have been hit hard in the first two rounds, given that they can field some Termie and vehicle heavy combos. Next comes Eldar, but with the same 25% winage as the Dark Angels, the Eldar results seem fair given the overpriced and underpowered nature of their codex. The surprise comes from the Grey Knights, with only 3 wins out of a possible 10 games over 2 rounds. With the codex being the powerhouse of 5th Edition, I can only assume this was probably caused by a combination of: bad luck matchups round 1 (GK vs GK), some non-experienced players, bad list match ups and possibly players not focusing enough on the mission objectives to win the games. Surpise number 2. is the Space Wolves having won only half of their 12 possible games. Again, there are 6 out of 38 armies that are Space Wolves, so I can only hazzard that some bad match ups and some Space Wolf on Space Wolf action had a hand in on the action (you like my use of innuendo and puns there? hehe). Dark Eldar holding at 50% is no surprise, but Tau!!! holy cow, that’s just… WOW! (ok settle down, I can hear the zombies groaning through my interweb-noculars :P). Tau won both their games in round 2 and seem to be holding their own against the other armies. For Imperial Guard and Space Marines, my comment before about high numbers of armies present is the opposite here. Low numbers can easily make the winage higher as 2 armies out of 28 can, with some good match ups, do well. Necrons and Blood Angles are both proving to be quite competitive at this point. The final point I will introduce for the Necrons and Blood Angels stats is that the callibre of the players running these armies seems to be quite high (no offence to the other players). This list includes Kirby (BA), Simon Rainbow (BA) and also Rupert Pupkin (Nec) and Julian Miller (Nec).

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